Abstract: The proposed project plans to examine the impact of consumer learning from various channels (media coverage, advertising, and product variety expansion) on the growing plant-based milk consumption. We will formulate a structural random coefficient discrete choice model with a Bayesian learning process in the general milk market. We will assess how the learning process shifts consumer preferences, estimate and compare the value of information from different channels in increasing demand, and assess the competition between plant-based milk and fluid milk products. We will further simulate how demand for plant-based milk will be affected under different scenarios by changing levels of consumer learning from three channels. Findings from this proposed project will help manufacturers select their communication channels carefully and prioritize their spending in channels that can maximize their profits. A review of our results can be seen here.

Abstract: The consumption of animal products is influenced by multiple factors, and reducing it can be approached by increasing the cost of production, reducing demand, and/or increasing demand elasticity by offering quality alternatives. This study will employ literature review and desk research methodology to investigate the factors affecting the cost of production of various animal products in the United States and other countries, emphasizing areas with significant potential impact for animals. The key goal is to identify current and potential future vulnerabilities in the production process. Additionally, the report will outline factors that currently strengthen the supply chain or reduce costs, and opposing factors that may reduce costs or make production more resilient in the future. We will produce a lay-friendly research report describing the findings and recommendations for animal advocates.

Abstract: Given growing signs of intensive farming in Africa, it is important to understand how best to prevent, stop, or reduce industrial animal agriculture in African countries. Output: white paper validating whether industrial animal farming is already entrenched in African countries & providing an intersectional account of the legal, social, political, economic & cultural landscapes which allows or hinders its prevention Our aim: -identify data sources to establish relevant empirical facts about the current status & growth of industrial animal agriculture (e.g. prevalence of industrial practices vs other systems, number & size of farms in countries), number of animals involved (by species), average meat production & consumption, key drivers of factory farming (e.g. government policies & actions, legal regulations, international trade standards/global supply chains, sociocultural factors) -map current knowledge in key industry analysis frameworks & identify knowledge gaps for further research We will use desk research, cataloguing data sources to answer key empirical questions above, conducting a PESTLE analysis on factors affecting the adoption of factory farming in Africa & a SWOT analysis relating to the goal of prevention. We will also analyse African markets for factory farmed products using Porter’s Five Forces & conduct a stakeholder analysis of factory farming. Data sources include Johns Hopkins Industrial Food Animal Production in LMICs, World Animal Protection Index & UNFAO’s FAOSTAT (list attached) We have preliminarily prioritised 42 African countries by developing a scoring system (attached) using 3 variables: how many animals could be impacted, how strongly they could be impacted & how likely it is that they could be impacted. Our top 10 countries to focus on are Nigeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Mali, Tanzania, Morocco, Kenya & Senegal. These may change depending on findings we come across over time that (de)prioritises certain countries Effect of reducing meat portions on meat consumption and satisfaction

Choice-architecture interventions, such as changing food portion sizes, can effectively shape dietary choices, but few studies have specifically assessed the effectiveness of reducing animal protein (AP) portion sizes. We will assess whether such interventions (halving AP portions or mixing AP with plant-based ingredients) can effectively reduce AP consumption in a university cafeteria without reducing patron satisfaction. Concerns about satisfaction have been substantial barriers to organizations’ adopting such interventions, yet our pilot studies suggest portion-size reductions need not reduce satisfaction. If we find the intervention is effective, this project will pave the way for larger studies of this intervention through our existing multi-university research collaboration “Menus of Change”.

Abstract: Our research will test the effectiveness of an informational intervention based on water usage information of different kinds of meat. Intervention studies targeting meat consumption typically contain information about the associated emissions and animal welfare concern of meat production, we argue that information regarding water usage might be more effective and emotionally salient, especially in countries where drought and water shortages are common occurrences. Our study will compare the effectiveness of these different informational intervention strategy, and seek to explain why certain strategy works better on some people but not others. Participants will be randomized into one of four intervention strategy conditions (animal welfare, climate change, water usage, control condition) and read a stimuli and complete a questionnaire. We will preregister our design, analysis, predictions, and will make our data public, and publish our findings in a scientific journal.

Abstract: Most studies on meat-reduction messaging have only used a small set of messages with idiosyncratic methodology, making it difficult to have any clear sense of what works best. We propose to advance the literature with a large-scale online experiment in which participants are randomized into many different possible advocacy presentations made up of content modules (e.g., animal suffering, environment, health), as well as randomizing whether the participant is “captive” or “free” to skip modules they do not want to see. Randomization will also occur within each module (e.g., animal suffering with graphic versus non-graphic content). Participants can then make a real purchase for a plant-based item or a meat-based item and choose whether they will sign a petition. The research paper from this study will provide the first rigorous comparison between messaging strategies, including across subpopulations (e.g., men over 50).

Abstract: One of the biggest hurdles to getting lawmakers to support or propose welfare legislation is their fear of negative public reaction and its impact on their political careers. We intend to identify issues with the most public support, particularly bipartisan support, in key states. During the design phase of this work, we will determine key issues and the ten most tractable states to poll in close consultation with advocates who do legislative work. We will then conduct polls to gauge support for each of the potential legislative avenues, using a representative sample of 1,068 participants from each of ten different U.S. states. We will segment results by key demographics and communicate them via a research report published to Faunalytics’ website. In short, this study will provide both strategic and tactical support to advocates who work through legislative channels to produce a large impact for animals.

Abstract: We study whether new plant-based meat and dairy alternatives and changing policies toward animal welfare affect or can be explained by changing consumer attitudes. We document trends in grocery purchases for different segments of the U.S. population and investigate potential drivers of changing interest in meat, eggs, dairy, and plant-based substitutes in the National Consumer Panel. We initially find little substitution for most consumers. Instead it seems as though the increase in consumption of plant-based alternatives is mainly driven by a small fraction of the population. There is some evidence, however, that this subset of the population is slowly but steadily growing. We plan to complement these descriptive trends with an analysis of how consumption responds to the arrival of novel plant-based substitutes in the grocery store and moving between regions with different consumption patterns. Furthermore, we intend to estimate a learning model to understand how consumers' beliefs respond to initial purchases of plant-based alternatives.

We aim to produce a published paper in a respected economics journal; we expect to post a working paper well before that.

Abstract: For animal advocacy campaigns to be successful, it is often necessary to seek common ground with those whom we seek to persuade. This is especially true with legislative and political advocacy. Given the divisive political climate in the United States, it is crucial to frame our issues in terms that will appeal to lawmakers from both major political parties.

As recent polling by Pew Research demonstrates, framing animal protection issues in terms of their impact on climate change could be effective with Democrats, but this common approach is likely to fail with Republicans. In contrast, the economy is considered a key issue by 79% of voters overall, regardless of political party. For this reason, we plan to use available data to estimate the number of U.S. jobs that could be created by increasing focus on the U.S. alternative protein industry.

We will estimate the number of jobs created and lost in two scenarios: a “meat-based future” and a “plant-based future.” In the first we will create a scenario of realistically increased supply and demand for animal products, then estimating the number of jobs based on this projected breakdown of the animal-based and plant-based agriculture and production sectors. The second scenario assumes a sizable shift in global diets toward plant-based foods, estimating the number of jobs based on this projected breakdown of the animal-based and plant-based agriculture and production sectors. We will deliver a final white paper and an executive summary to be published online.

Abstract: Environmental concerns are posing risks to existing practices followed in agriculture. With increasing temperature variations, physical risks of environmental disasters and deteriorating agricultural yield, sustainable agriculture policy appears to be the only promising solution to address food security with a promise of environmental balance. However, the transition path towards sustainable agriculture requires long term planning with major investments towards new technologies. These investments require funding from financial institutions and government. However, the credit access remains moderate in the initial years of transition due to lack of productivity and greater investment requirements. This project is aimed at analyzing the role of financial inter-mediation in facilitating the transition process. More specifically, the project aims to develop a micro-foundation analytical model which will help businesses to plan their path towards sustainable agriculture practices in medium and long term. The model will provide different alternative transition paths scenario analysis with an emphasis on the availability of financing from financial institutions and government.

This will be an effective altruism forum post, and then an academic paper.

The post will summarize and meta-analyze the extant scientific literature on reducing consumption of meat and animal products (MAP). We find that this literature generally comes in three strands: 1) “conscious determinants of eating meat” (e.g. appealing to health or environmental reasons to eat less meat); 2) changes to the microenvironment (e.g. placing meatless prominently in a buffet) and 3) the effects of appealing to animal welfare. We will first provide a critical summary of a prior literature review or meta-analysis from each strand. We will then offer our own meta-analysis of all RCTs, published through September 2023, that 1) measure meat consumption (self-reported or not); 2) have at least 25 subjects in treatment and control (or, for cluster-randomized studies, at least 5 clusters in each arm) and 3) record outcomes at least a full day after the first day of treatment. We will decribe what our analysis finds, and conclude with some suggestions for future researchers.

Abstract: This project will investigate the role of bank lending in U.S. farms' resilience to climate change-related disasters. The research hypothesis is two-fold: 1) credit access; 2) climate resilience. More specifically, banks tend to lend less to farms in U.S. counties that are more exposed to climate risks and disasters. Second, after a climate-related disaster, farms in U.S. counties with more bank lending recover faster than counties with less bank financing, as they can better adapt to climate change and rebuild after disasters. To test the hypothesis, researchers will use a combination of exploratory data analysis and econometric estimation, employing county-level and product-level data at annual frequency. The data sources include the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), and the USDA.

Abstract: We will project how changes in plant-based meat market share in the US and world would affect world crop prices and how that would affect crop production in different regions. We will use a static economic model, incorporating data on price elasticities and production costs, to model changes in production under several scenarios.

Abstract: Environmental concerns are posing risks to existing practices followed in agriculture. With increasing temperature variations, physical risks of environmental disasters and deteriorating agricultural yield, sustainable agriculture policy appears to be the only promising solution to address food security with a promise of environmental balance. However, the transition path towards sustainable agriculture requires long term planning with major investments towards new technologies. These investments require funding from financial institutions and government. However, the credit access remains moderate in the initial years of transition due to lack of productivity and greater investment requirements. This project is aimed at analyzing the role of financial inter-mediation in facilitating the transition process. More specifically, the project aims to develop a micro-foundation analytical model which will help businesses to plan their path towards sustainable agriculture practices in medium and long term. The model will provide different alternative transition paths scenario analysis with an emphasis on the availability of financing from financial institutions and government.

Abstract: This survey will address the most business-relevant questions that producers may have about in-ovo egg sexing technology:

1) How aware are American consumers of male chick culling?

2) What do American consumers think about male chick culling?

3) What do American consumers think about in-ovo egg sexing technology?

4) Who might the early adopters be?

5) How much of a price premium are early adopters willing to pay?

6) What should we call eggs made with this technology?