Using Proprietary Grocery Store Data to Predict Demand for Plant-Based Meat

Focus Area: “Economics” - Addressing knowledge gaps around the economics of the animal protein and plant-based alternatives markets

PI: Hal Gordon

Date Awarded: November 2021 (FSRF 39)

Summary:

This research delves into the emerging market of plant-based meat (PBM), a new food category that has gained considerable attention since its introduction in 2017. Unlike previous meat substitutes, PBM is marketed for its close resemblance in taste and appearance to traditional meat, aiming to directly compete with and potentially replace meat products. The study highlights the environmental significance of PBM, noting its potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation associated with meat production. Despite these benefits, the research underscores current challenges faced by PBM, such as higher prices and limited market share compared to traditional meat.

The study leverages proprietary data from a nationwide grocery chain to conduct an in-depth analysis of PBM purchasers, exploring their buying habits and the extent to which they might substitute PBM for meat. The results indicate that while PBM purchasers often continue to buy traditional meat, there is limited evidence of a major shift towards PBM, even with price incentives. The conclusion presents a cautious outlook: the PBM market, while in its early stages and subject to future growth and improvements in quality and affordability, is evolving more slowly in displacing meat as a primary protein source than some experts initially predicted.

Further Information:
Completed research paper can be found here.