Findings

Projects addressing this RFP provided valuable insights into the plant-based market, including which products to prioritize, animal product displacement, and the effects of industry scaling.

One way for companies to prioritize which plant-based products to produce is to identify the products causing the most animal harm. Based on U.S. consumer consumption rates, non-battered fish filets, chicken shreds and ground, and unbreaded chicken breasts/filets took almost 14 million lives per day in 2020. In addition to scrambled eggs and omelets, these products also account for the greatest amount of animal suffering. Thus, to have the most impact on animal welfare, companies should target these products by producing high-quality animal-free alternatives comparable in flavor, texture, cookability, price and availability.

Customer dissatisfaction can significantly impact a plant-based product’s success. An analysis of e-commerce customer comments found that the average customer's overall product rating was affected by each mention of taste, smell, health-nutrition, texture, saltiness, meat-alikeness, and versatility. Notably, negative mentions were more impactful than positive ones. In turn, average product ratings corresponded with sales performance. In 2022, a 0.1-point rating increase paralleled a 7.4% increase in sales volume.

A question of interest under this RFP is if plant-based products are taking market share from their animal equivalents. Completed projects suggest that the market effects so far range from nil to moderate and are nuanced. 

• Economic modeling of the U.S. beef industry estimates that every 10% decrease in price or increase in demand for plant-based meat (PBM) alternatives reduces beef and cattle prices by less than 1% each and the domestic cattle slaughtered by 0.15%. It is important to note that during the study period the initial prices of PBMs were substantially higher than those of corresponding animal products.

• American grocery store purchase data revealed that PBM promotions did not significantly affect the demand for ground beef or chicken.

• From 2013-2017, the volume of plant-based milk consumed increased; however, these sales did not fully explain the concurrent decline in dairy milk consumption. Furthermore, dairy sales were relatively insensitive to changes in plant-based milk prices, pointing to limited substitution.

• Less than one-third of American shoppers repurchased PBM within three months. Before their first PBM purchase, repeat buyers (vs. single purchasers) were more likely to be "low meat" purchasers and had spent more on traditional meat replacements, such as tofu. This suggests that people consuming higher amounts of meat are not becoming regular purchasers of PBM.13

The plant-based and alternative protein industry is still young with promising potential to grow its market share significantly. Scaling up plant-based alternatives production is likely to deliver substantial cost-savings, as much as 25-30%.  However, any further cost savings will need to come from technological innovation, indicating that R&D investment is still necessary for the plant-based alternatives despite their prevalence in the marketplace.